Apple suffers in market plunge
By Stephen WITHERS
Apple's stock price has been hit fairly badly by the turmoil in the financial markets.
The stock dropped from $US128.24 on Friday afternoon to a low of $US103.52 on Monday, the lowest price since May 2007. Over $US20 billion was lopped from the company's market capitalisation.
CEO Steve Jobs holds over 5.5 million shares according to company filings. Hmmm, that drop meant about $US135 million came off his net worth. Ouch! And that was just Apple - Disney shares fell too, but by a smaller percentage.
Still, I'd be pleased to own 5.5 million shares that were only worth one cent each, so I suppose it's all relative. And as I keep telling myself, you don't actually lose money until you sell an investment.
Things started moving in the right direction on Tuesday with a recovery of almost 8 percent followed by a small additional rise in after hours trading.
Apple was one of the worst hit tech stocks, presumably because of its relatively high exposure to the consumer market. I'm doubtful of that reasoning - my experience in previous downturns suggests companies clamp down on spending on IT as vigourously as people who fear they might be out of a job tomorrow.
According to MarketWatch analysts were variously concerned with Apple's absence from the low-end (under $US1000) consumer PC market and a RBC (Royal Bank of Canada) survey that showed the number of people planning to buy a Mac in the next 90 days fell from 34 percent in August to 29 percent in September.
I'm not sure what to make of that, because the idea that anything like one-third of the population is planning to buy a Mac in the next 90 days seems incredible to me. Assume that intentions turn into action and extrapolate that over a year for the entire population, and wouldn't it mean that everyone would buy one and a bit Macs?
Far more believable is the finding that 41 percent of respondents said they were planning to spend less on electronics over the next three months. If times are tough, it's relatively easy to put off buying a new computer, TV or other entertainment gear. Mind you, the way such products have been pouring out of the shops over the last year or two, it wouldn't have surprised me if sales fell simply because the market was sated.
Regardless of Mac sales, I'm still expecting the latest iPods to sell well for Christmas. The nano in particular is relatively cheap, and sufficiently different to previous models to tempt anyone with a battered nano or mini to put it on their wish list.
So, what do you reckon? Are Apple shares bargain priced at the moment, or do you think they have further to fall? Leave your opinion in a comment, and we'll see who gets it right.
Me? I think we've just seen a 'dead cat bounce' and that the price will fall again unless the 'bailout bill' in some form or another gets approval pretty quickly. Am I putting my money where my mouth is? No chance!
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One of Australia's most experienced IT writers, Stephen Withers has been using and writing about Macs since 1984. His journalistic resume includes stints as editor of Australian MacUser and as Macintosh section editor of PC Week. He has also managed a PC and Mac support operation at one of the country's leading universities, and is active in the Mac user group community.