Can Palm survive as a one-trick pony?
Isn't it funny how several people across the world can have the same idea at the the same time. APC Mag, Ars Technica and Pocket Mojo all blogged this week on Palm's flagging fortunes.
One of the commenters at APC Mag says that Palm's Treo sales are growing at 110%. I ask the question - Is this enough?
Let's face some facts. Palm's PDA business is dying. IDC's research tells us that standalone PDA sales are falling fast and major players like Dell and Fujitsu are leaving the market. Palm is left with their Treo line and the new Foleo but will it be enough?
The Foleo is, in my view, unlikely to make significant market inroads. As a product concept it's interesting but it really seems to be a indulgence of Palm founder Jeff Hawkins rather than a product made to fulfil a market niche. The Foleo is either a too-big PDA or an under-powered UMPC.
The Treo's a great product but the last few years haven't seen much innovation. In fact, the most significant change to the Treo has been the introduction of Windows Mobile. Sure, they've gotten a little thinner and the antenna's been hidden but how different is the Treo of 2004 from the 2007 model?
So can Palm survive if it becomes Treo Corp? I hope so. However, a number if things need to change. Palm's dependence on the Treo can only last so long. At some point they're going to need to do something new. Windows Mobile might have been a short-term strategy but Palm will need something that makes them different to the rest of the market. Maybe the Access Linux Platform is a part of that but it'll take more than some software.
Palm will need to look at the entire Treo platform in order to create something special that will captivate the market. If it doesn't then it's days are numbered.
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